I can understand why the majority of Spaniards want early elections after the ongoing debacle in Catalonia. The Spanish government and especially Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy have failed miserably in Catalonia using bully-boy tactics instead of dialogue. The Catalan crisis is not going to disappear and until the Spanish government sits down with the political parties who want independence I can’t see a way forward.
But Rajoy is not going to call an early election; he should but he won’t. The chances of his party winning an overall majority in parliament are slim to say the least. Support for his centre-right Partido Popular has fallen over the last few months. While the majority of Spaniards agree with the government’s actions, I suspect that many deep down are rather concerned that the push for independence escalated so rapidly.
Catalonia is now effectively split and the independence movement has some support outside Catalonia, including in the Balearics. Also, the international community is well aware of the crisis in Catalonia. One thing the parties who support independence have managed to do is get their message out. Spain has not come under pressure to open negotiations, but I suspect many in the European Union would like to see the problem resolved and quickly. The EU is also well aware of the push for independence by other regions across Europe. The Catalan crisis needs to be resolved.
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