15/07/2001 00:00
Beijing will need help
Will there be a boycott of the Beijing Olympics in 2008? This may not seem the right moment to ask such a question since the Chinese deserve some time to indulge themselves in the euphoria they understandably feel after Friday's decision. Nor should the posing of the question seem to imply criticism of the International Olympic Committee for awarding the 2008 Games to Beijing - I have been arguing in this newspaper's pages for some time that Beijing would be the only possible choice. Still, 2008 is a long way off and many difficult political situations could develop between now and then which would so affect the international atmosphere that the question of a boycott of the Olympics could arise. It was, after all, only thirteen years ago that the Soviet bloc boycotted the Los Angeles event after Western nations had cold-shouldered the 1984 Moscow games because of the Soviet Union's invasion of Afghanistan. These things can happen. Among the obvious crisis points that could arise are: a marked deterioration of the human rights situation in China; unprovoked Chinese aggression towards Taiwan; repression in Tibet or elsewhere; a serious trade war; mishandling of an incident such as the recent US spy-plane mishap. Thus far, the asumption has been that the Chinese government will be extremely anxious to avoid giving any ammunition to those who believe they should not have been awarded the Olympics - and that therefore the next seven years will probably be a time when a light hand will be employed on human rights issues and aggressive acts towards neighbours will be avoided. At the same time, however, it must be kept in mind that dissidents and aggressors inside and outside China will see this coming period as one in which they can risk being more open and active - safe in the belief that the Chinese government must be on its best behaviour.
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