Conservatives in decline

YESTERDAY'S Populus/Times poll showing David Cameron's Conservatives with a reduced 29 per cent support compared to Labour's unchanged 40 per cent will not make for a Merry Christmas at 10 Downing Street. But this form of polling is growing increasingly misleading as the next election in May 2015 can be seen in the distance. The pollsters should also be asking about attitudes to the Conservative-Liberal coalition, not only about its two members separately. The Liberal Democrats were given 11 per cent approval, just marginally ahead of UKIP on 10 per cent. The bottom line for Mr Cameron is that his party has lost six points of its support in the past two months, two-thirds of which has been taken by UKIP and one-third by the Liberal Democrats, while Labour has held steady.

It is easy to draw the conclusion that the reason for UKIP's rise is dissatisfaction with the prime minister's policies on Europe. That must be a factor and will remain one as he delays his long-promised speech on Britain's future in Europe, now scheduled for mid-January, but it is also probable that there is a general feeling in the country that the present government is divided on several issues and confused and incompetent. It is probably the case that the only minister who is seen to get results is Michael Gove at Education.