THE POLLS DIFFER

How could there be such a shift in opinion in a matter of a few days? Different polls using different methods is one answer. Even so, and allowing for the margin of error always present in all polls, the difference in the results is puzzling.

The Conservatives have claimed that it shows the voters' favourable reaction to David Cameron's two-week campaign of speeches on various policy initiatives, one of which concerned the tricky area of immigration. Others say it shows that Gordon Brown's “bounce” is losing height. The opinion polls exert considerable influence nowadays but, of course, the public only gets the broad percentage results. There is a mass of other information that is pored over by the parties and the psephologists. Sometimes a little of this material leaks out and when it does I sometimes wonder whether we should take the polls as seriously as we do. For instance, the Times/Populus poll which reported yesterday apparently asked its respondents whether Gordon Brown's performance so far had made any difference to Britain. What a stupid question. Six per cent said they thought he had; it is surprising that the figure was that high after his mere two months in office.