CHANGE IN UKRAINE

by RAY FLEMING
THE difficult decisions that the United States and EU nations have to make over future relations with Ukraine may disappear quite soon. The Ukrainian president, Viktor Yushchenko, has dissolved parliament and called a snap general election on December 7. His reason is that the coalition government led by prime minister Yulia Tymoshenko has been destroyed by “the ambition of one person” - yes, the aforementioned Yulia who recently joined with the opposition to limit the president's powers. Yushchenko accused her of being willing to sacrifice everything - “our language, security and our European prospects”; he is pro-Europe and pro-Nato membership for Ukraine and he supported Georgia during its stand-off with Russia in August, which Tymoshenko refused to do so. She claims to take a centrist position between Russia and the West. The election in December will be close but there is a distinct possibility that the opposition Party of the Regions which favours closer relations with Russia will do well. Despite president Yushchenko's advocacy of NATO membership it is not a popular cause in Ukraine and recent events in Georgia have made it less so. It is quite possible, therefore, that by mid-December a new Ukrainian government will indicate that NATO membership, despite US pressure for it, is no longer on the agenda. But Ukrainian politics, which seemed so straightforward during the brave days of the Orange Revolution in 2004, when closer ties to the West seemed a foregone conclusion, are really very complex.