Spain votes

The PP's four years have been marked by the controversies of corruption allegations. One of the most notable of these, the so-called B accounts affair involving former party treasurer Luis Barcenas, has yet to be resolved: it might never be. The government has also pursued unpopular policies with respect to abortion and rights of protest. It had to backtrack on abortion reform that was out of tune with contemporary society, while the so-called gagging law - a wide-ranging piece of legislation which reinforced much that already existed - appeared to be directed at the types of protest that had surfaced in 2011.

The election is uncertain because there are four parties in with genuine chances of being involved in the next government. The PP will, according to the polls, win the most seats in Congress but fall well short of its current majority. PSOE, the main opposition, has failed to recover from its disastrous defeat in 2011. A change in leadership to a more youthful and appealing Pedro Sánchez has not restored support. Indeed, the polls are predicting further heavy losses of seats.

The two new names are those of Ciudadanos and Podemos. The C's, a party that has grown out of a Catalonia heartland, are variously described as right and left wing. In totality, they are neither. Rather, they are a hybrid, adopting a firm stance against Catalonia independence and being pro-business while at the same time advocating more liberal social policies and sharing with Podemos a desire to rid the political system of its corruption. Its leader Albert Rivera has some charisma, as does Pablo Iglesias, the leader of Podemos. But of the various questions asked of both parties, one is whether these are one-man parties. Others regarding Podemos concern its policies aimed at debt restructuring in what is an enormous election programme - almost 400 items of policy.

Ultimately, today's election can be viewed as a decision between the steady economic policies of the PP and its failures in other areas. Both the C's and Podemos have attracted support from previous PP voters who have had enough of the corruption and the perceived aloofness of the party, typified by Mariano Rajoy. There is a vitality about the C's and Podemos which, perhaps ironically, is wished for by a nation now coming out of recession and wanting the national fiesta to start over again.

The certainty is that today's vote will require coalition government. For the PP, there is seemingly only one candidate - the C's. Together they may well be in a position to form a majority. Rivera has, however, ruled out a pact unless the C's gain the largest share of the vote, which it probably will not. An alternative is a three-way pact of PSOE, C's and Podemos, though how tenable this might be is questionable. A further conclusion may be that the PP continues as a minority government, with agreements of support on certain policies. But a major issue in this scenario would be whether the Congress would support the investiture of Rajoy.

Uncertain, highly uncertain.

There will be updates on the election later.