The European Commission's Joint Research Centre, which provides independent scientific advice for European Union policy, has conducted a study of the impact of climate change on tourism at a regional level.
This study concludes that the Balearics will experience the greatest percentage loss of tourism among Spain's regions (the Canaries excluded) because of rising temperatures.
Base data for the study are tourist overnight stays between June and September 2019, the data coming from Spain's National Statistics Institute. There were 39,627,080 overnight stays in the Balearics during that four-month period.
Four levels of warming have been taken. These reflect the most optimistic and the most pessimistic projections as to increased temperatures - 1.5 degrees, two degrees, three degrees and four degrees. For all four, the study suggests losses for the Balearics - from 0.7% for 1.5C to 8.2% for 4C. These losses are all higher than other Spanish regions. At the most extreme, four degrees, this equates to a loss of some 3.2 million overnight stays*.
The European Travel Commission has said that the effect of increasingly frequent heat waves and of the increase in fires in the Mediterranean is already being felt. "The number of tourists who planned to spend their holidays in Greece, Spain or Portugal between June and November of this year will fall by 4% this year."
The study examines the potential impact of climate change on tourism demand up to 2100, so this is a long time horizon, and compares this with tourism figures for 2019. It uses data from 269 European regions month by month for a period of 20 years. The overall conclusion is that "climatic conditions will significantly affect tourism demand, with coastal regions being the most affected".
The 8.2% drop in summer overnight stays in the Balearics would be partially offset by an increase in tourist overnight stays at other, less hot times of the year. Estimates are that southern European destinations will receive around five per cent more visitors in spring, autumn and winter. "In addition to a geographic redistribution, the seasonal patterns of tourism are also expected to change considerably, as the summer months will become less attractive while the lower seasons will become more attractive as weather conditions improve."
The greatest losses in the Mediterranean (at four degrees) will be Greece's Ionian islands (-9.1%), northern Aegean islands (-9%) and southern Aegean islands (-8.6 %) followed by Cyprus (-8.2%). The biggest winner will be West Wales (+16%).
"The central and northern European regions are expected to become more attractive for tourism activities during all months of the year to the detriment of the southern and Mediterranean areas," the study states.
Tour operators and others in the tourism/travel sector are aware that they will have to address this situation. For this summer, they haven't noticed any real decrease in bookings for the Balearics due to the heat; figures may actually show an increase in tourist numbers. While heat alerts have been issued on a regular basis during the summer, there have only been two heat waves, both of them in July. There were three in 2022, two of which lasted longer than those this summer.
The regularity with which there are now heat waves contrasts markedly with the 1990s. For the whole of that decade there was only one heat wave.
* To provide some context, the average duration of stay is generally (and currently) around six nights. This is only a very rough estimate, but the loss at four degrees could amount to some 530,000 tourists. At 1.5 degrees, the loss of overnight stays could be in the region of 277,000, perhaps around 46,000 tourists.
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James WalkerThere's two glaring problems with your theories. 1. They don't match the proven facts. 2. You're giving "them" too much credit. "They" (whoever "they" are) generally couldn't organise a pissup in a brewery, let alone successfully establish and manage multiple secret global conspiracies that would require the participation of millions of fully cognisant operatives posing as"normal people " who can be guaranteed to operate in total secrecy for the rest of their lives. This borderlines on the reptilian shape shifter theory. Just because it might help you overcome your paranoia, look up "Occam's Razor". No, it's not some communist plot or a fake news thing. You'll see.
James WalkerYeah I'm so brainwashed I should believe you (please tell me what your background is in climate science) over people who have actually been studying it for decades! What have done, watched a few YouTube videos when you're having a C**P?
@ Zoltan. You prove my point everytime, you are so brainwashed by your tribes side and the cults narrative, you don't critically think or probably don't want to look. They say ignorance is bliss. It's un intelligent just to put any subject you don't agree with into a box and label it a conspiracy theory. It's pretty obvious now after the last 3 years that many of them so called conspiracies are now facts. I wish you well on improving your knowledge I hope you leave the cult and start to free think again. You don't need Governments, big corporations, big pharma, mainstream media in all aspects of your life. Stay free Zoltan.
James WalkerMaybe it makes you feel clever that you've discovered some type of worldwide conspiracy about climate change but it actually makes you look stupid. You'd rather believe crackpots like Alex Jones and Matt le Tissier than the world's top scientists. Sure, you'll dig out some YouTube video of a disgraced scientist that has lost the plot, as evidence. But I think that I'll stick with people who are experts in their field, and use things called facts instead of some wacko conspiracy theory nonsense.
This narrative being pushed by the establishment and media this summer is climate change fear porn created to scare people. It's all nonsense there setting up there next chess move. Climate lockdowns. And I wait for all the the conspiracy theorists comments off the robot sheep. Apparently if you critically think or even question the narrative your some time foil hat wearer. More people are waking up to it all now.
Ah of course Stan, lets use more and more energy to cool the hotels down and that will cool the planet, not!
The rate the earths temperature is rising there will be no one left to go on holiday unless we do something about global warming so it does not really matter where there is left to go as everyone will be in underground shelters trying to survive.
Tourists are here for one or two weeks. Then they return home. They enjoy their hot holidays. I like the Winters and Spring Temperatures. But the majority of places are closed. A rethink on Tourism is needed. It is a pleasure to be in buildings etc. That have Air Conditioning. That is the way forward for Tourism. Construct more Air Conditioned places etc.