An aim is for zero overall growth. | Jaume Morey

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At one point last year there was talk of total tourist numbers in Mallorca and the Balearics reaching 20 million in 2024. That would have represented growth of 12.4%. When the final figures are known, the growth is likely to have been around half this.

In terms of foreign tourist numbers up to end-November, there was a six per cent increase compared with 2023, a total of 15.1 million. This was the lowest growth by contrast with the other five main tourist regions of Spain - Valencia 15.5%, Madrid 13.5%, Andalusia 11.7%, Catalonia 9.9%, the Canaries 9.5%. Catalonia, with 18.8 million (all tourists, foreign and Spanish), registered the highest number of tourists ahead of the Balearics with 18.4 million. Historically, Catalonia has always had the highest annual total.

Does this lower rate of growth in the Balearics point to a ceiling on tourist numbers or at least a lesser margin for growth? While a decrease in numbers of tourists has been advocated by various sources, the political line - that of the current administrations - is zero growth: maintaining numbers but with distribution away from the main summer months to other months of the year.

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A hint as to the potential for growth came in May last year. Sebastian Ebel, CEO of TUI, said that the tour operator was looking to other Mediterranean destinations for growth because the Balearics had reached "capacity limits". Perceived by some as a threat, it was more a case of being realistic.

Demand for 2025, as reported earlier this week, is forecast to at least be on a par with 2024. Forecasts are being made against the background of the deliberations by the government's sustainability pact working parties. Will all the studies being made result in there being a limit on tourist numbers because, as TUI have suggested, the islands do not have capacity for more? If zero overall growth is the aim, is a limit not essential?

Over the coming weeks we will hear the working parties' proposals, ones which - according to President Prohens - will go towards defining the tourism model for a generation. But while the administrations may look to engineer a form of ceiling, the market will also play its role.