Mallorca and the “demographic bomb”

At the start of the millennium, the Balearic population stood at 817,313. It has thus risen by a third in the space of a generation, a period of time during which economic factors have played their part. The financial crisis witnessed a slowdown in growth, the main reason for the total increase since 2000 having been immigration. People have moved to the Balearics for work, or on occasion they have been deterred because of negative economic circumstances. Principally immigration from Latin America, other Spanish regions and Morocco, the migratory flows haven’t been consistent. For example, emigration back to places of origin has tended to coincide with uncertain economic times.

These are currently good economic times, the foreign immigration to the Balearics last year having amounted to 11,602. The total foreign population of the islands now stands at 352,221, this segment of the population having contributed to a general 12% increase in population over the past ten years, the highest rate in Spain. Almost half of the Balearic population, as now is, was not born on the islands; these are people from abroad and elsewhere in Spain.

Taking the specific case of Palma, a recent study based on figures from the town hall’s population service gave a total population quite a bit higher than that from the INE - 479,059 versus 423,350. Allowing for a difference that is probably explained by municipal boundary interpretation, the growth over 20 years to 2024 had been almost exactly 100,000. Of the 313,261 adult population in 2004, 14% was foreign. By 2024 this adult population had gone from 44,065 to 113,328. In other words, 70% of population growth was foreign (people over the age of 18). On top of whom there were the under-18s.

At the time of this study, the emeritus professor of human geography, Pere Salvà, referred to “residential distress”, this being a consequence of growth so skewed towards immigration rather than to natural growth of more births than deaths. It was obvious to what he was referring. If not, he made the point of distinguishing between an immigration for work reasons - he added Asians to Latin Americans and Moroccans - and that from northern Europe.

The latter is certainly not confined to retirees, which may once have overwhelmingly been the case, but regardless of age or motivation, the Europeans, he observed, “have bought entire neighbourhoods”. He highlighted the case of Palma’s Nou Llevant, where luxury homes for wealthy northern Europeans occupy space with schools attended by the children of immigrants from the parts of the world he noted. The Europeans’ children, if they have any, most definitely do not attend the local schools.

Salvà made the point that immigration is necessary for employment. “We depend on it.” In this regard, he was offering a defence similar to that made by Spain’s prime minister, Pedro Sánchez. Both are right, but then there are the voices who stress the stubbornly and traditionally high level of unemployment in Spain, despite the country at present well outperforming others in Europe.

Immigration has its political consequences, and everyone knows it does, while there is political capital to be made dependent on the origins of the immigration. Playing into these issues are the great challenges posed by population growth in the Balearics. Housing is an obvious one; more than 17,000 new homes are said to be needed right now. But strains are evident across the board - in the health service, in education, in social services, in policing. Because of its size, the effects of immigration may be most apparent in Palma. However, this is largely because one can quote the types of figures mentioned in the study. These are obviously much higher than in towns in Mallorca with sizable immigrant communities, e.g. Inca and Manacor as well as smaller places such as Sa Pobla.

Two years ago, the chief of police in Sa Pobla, Antoni Borràs, explained that the population had increased by some 1,400 over ten years to just under 14,200. Not a huge population by any stretch of the imagination, but the increase had been greater than had been expected. Provisions for policing hadn’t kept pace. He downplayed crime said to be linked to immigrants - “we are average” - but he insisted that town halls such as Sa Pobla’s needed to adapt citizen security in order to control the “excessive growth” in population. The size of police forces relative to population was and continues to be a headache for town halls.

The Balearic Government has focused much of its demands for improved regional financing on what it believes to be the overpopulation of the islands. In terms of very recent growth, the Balearics aren’t actually exceptional; Madrid and Valencia, for instance, have comparable rates for 2024. But the stresses being created can perhaps be better appreciated by considering population densities.
Go back to the start of the millennium, and the density in the Balearics - number of inhabitants per square kilometre - was 164. It is now 249. In isolation this may not mean a great deal. But in comparative terms, it places the Balearics fifth in Spain. Madrid is way ahead with 888, but is followed by the Basque Country (310), the Canaries (303), Catalonia (253) and then the Balearics. An almost exact comparison in respect of land area is provided by La Rioja, where the population density is just 65.

Regions that are particularly strong economically - the Balearics because of tourism - will inevitably be prone to having the greatest densities. In themselves, densities don’t have to be a problem. They can in fact have benefit for provisions of resources because of greater efficiencies to be obtained from urban areas with high density. However, if planning doesn’t take sufficient account of efficiencies or of the constant strains resulting from population growth, then there are problems.

Compounding these are the land limits allied to planning regulations that make development so difficult. Where land is available, there are multiple demands on its potential use. In Palma, where the town hall is attempting to make a virtue of its affordable housing programme, it was reported last week that there is to be a request for 3,000 square metres of municipal land to be made available for the building of a Buddhist temple. All things being equal, the temple would be fine. Unfortunately, they aren’t equal. There are priorities. Aren’t there?

How much greater can this density get? Pere Salvà points to a forecast of 300,000 more people by 2037, 90% of whom will be immigrants. For historian and journalist Miquel Payeras, a “demographic bomb” has already dropped in the Balearics. Its fallout will be that much more consequential by the middle of the next decade. He is critical of political parties for having done so little in addressing this. Right now, he argues, the welfare state cannot do more. So, how will it be ten years from now, Salvà recognising that “we have to accept we live in a more complex society, with very different identities that will form different social groups”. This doesn’t, he believes, have to be negative, “if there are good educational policies and the standard of living of newcomers grows at the same rate”. If not, he warns, “we will face the same problems as in France”. Population figures like those just released by the INE may seem dry, but behind them are issues of fundamental importance to Mallorca and the Balearics.