A THREE WAY SPLIT

With the Chancellor of the Exchequer's judgement on whether or not Britain is economically ready to join the European single currency only a few weeks away, the opinion polls become of compelling interest. The latest, undertaken by Populus for The Times, suggests that the public's view is split into almost equal thirds: one third opposed in principle, one third in favour (of entry immediately or when economic conditions are right) and one third opposed now but in favour of keeping the option open. Curiously, the Populus pollsters did not ask whether opinions will be affected by Gordon Brown's conclusions. These results will be of little help to the Prime Minister in deciding whether to push ahead with a referendum before a general election, if the Chancellor's report is generally positive in character, or to wait until later and take advantage of an assumed third election success with an early follow–up referendum. Nor will the poll help Iain Duncan Smith who is reportedly thinking of adding an anti–euro campaign to his strategy; a majority appears to be ready to keep a sceptical open mind about the single currency. For Mr Blair the stark reality is that at the moment only one third of the public is unequivocally in favour of single currency membership; to turn this into a referendum majority without enthusiastic endorsement from the Chancellor would seem an impossible task. The pro–euro enthusiasts tell the Prime Minister that Europe will not wait indefinitely for a decision, but they do not answer the more important question – would it be better to risk a referendum defeat than to risk a delay.