28/11/2004 00:00
TW
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by RAY FLEMING
THERE are lies, damn lies and statistics. And then there are opinion polls.
The YouGov poll published on Friday told us nothing new about the statistical state of the parties in Britain beyond a slight shift away from both Conservatives and Labour towards the Liberal Democrats, leaving Labour in the lead on 35 per cent against 32 per cent for Mr Howard's party and 23 per cent for Mr Kennedy's.

However, the small print of this poll suggested that there may be plenty to play for before the general election.
The percentages given above were a response on voting intentions should there be a general election tomorrow, but they excluded those who gave a “don't know” answer, some 15 per cent, and those who said they would not vote, some 10 per cent.

If I read the figures correctly, the latter figure implies a turn-out at the polls of 90 per cent, whereas on the day it is likely to be somewhere in the 60s.

So the figures attached to each of the parties in this and other polls cannot really be relied upon as guide to the outcome of the election.
There were other indicators of uncertainty among voters: asked which party could handle economic difficulties better, 40 per cent said “don't know”, a remarkable increase from the 14 per cent who gave the same answer before the last general election in 2001; 24 per cent said they didn't know whether a future Conservative government would be “honest and trustworthy”.

Interestingly, the only subject on which those questioned seemed to have no difficulty in making up their minds was the following: proposed ban on smoking in places of work and pubs and restaurants; 76 per cent were in favour and only 2 per cent didn't know.