By and large yesterday's three leading opinion polls, taken over the weekend, told the same story: Labour's lead over the Conservatives has fallen to about two or three per cent and the Brown budget bounce that pushed the gap up to about eight points a couple of weeks ago has apparently subsided.
The electorate is fickle, or recalls only what happened yesterday, or actually doesn't care all that much. Apathy is what Labour most has to fear as Peter Hain made clear in a remarkable frank speech yesterday.
Another poll, of those saying they will definitely vote, showed an eight point lead for the Conservatives; 77 per cent of Conservatives say they will vote but only 64 per cent of Labour's supporters. The bottom line to all this speculation is that even if the two parties are level-pegging in national polling the outcome would be an 80 or 90 majority for Labour such is the inbuilt advantage that Labour has in the current distribution of seats and votes.
Can Mr Howard narrow the existing gap and even take the lead? He has already played most of his policy cards on public services, tax, crime, asylum and immigration and it is hard to see what more he can promise without really casting doubt on his promises to hold down and even reduce taxes. After Iraq and the scandal of Labour's postal vote-rigging in Birmingham perhaps trust and integrity should now be the main thrust of the Conservative attack, beginning today at the last Prime Minister's Questions of the second Labour administration.
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