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by Ray Fleming

“ Here, in the pre-dawn darkness of Afghanistan, we see the light of a new day on the horizon” -- President Obama, speaking from Kabul yesterday to the American people about the strategic agreement for future relations with Afghanistan which he had just signed with President Karsai. It was difficult to suppress a recollection of Winston Churchill's “Westward look, the land is bright” during a dark time in World War Two; Churchill's belief was justified but it cannot confidently be said that the economic, military and civil aid assistance envisaged by this agreement will be accomplished.

President Obama has achieved the best deal possible in difficult circumstances but many Afghans will fear a return of Taliban power even with some US presence. An indication of how the balance of power has shifted is the agreement's provision that responsibility for the very effective night raids by US Special Forces will now pass to the Afghanistan army. Mr Obama's only alternative was to say that America would end all its relations with Afghanistan at the end of 2014 but that would have been a dereliction of a duty he inherited from President Bush. The agreement was necessary because of the NATO meeting in Chicago later this month at which all countries still involved in Afghanistan will want to know how the wind-down there is to be carried out.