FAVOURABLE UK FORECAST

Perhaps that is why he chose not make anything of its forecast yesterday that the recovery of the British economy is likely to outpace its main European rivals during the rest of 2010. It predicted annualised quarter-on-quarter growth of 3.1 per cent in Britain during the current second quarter compared with 2.8 per cent in Germany and 1.7 per cent in France. In global terms only Canada is thought likely to do better than Britain while Japan and the United States will probably not achieve more than 2.3 per cent growth. There was also positive economic news, though more patchy, from the Chartered Institution of Purchasing and Supply. A survey of the service sector showed a recent increase in the payroll for the first time in two years with the expectation of “continued job creation through the year”. In the election campaign the parties will pick and choose from the many statistical and forecasting sources that report regularly and add their own interpretations. The BBC Radio 4 Today programme is monitoring the use of such statistics by the parties and providing a daily report on which may have been unduly tampered with -- a valuable innovation.