Unjustified optimism

The Scottish referendum on independence from the rest of the UK is only eighteen months away and it is important to keep track of developments despite distractions elsewhere. When David Cameron visited Scotland a couple of weeks ago he made a point of visiting the important NATO Trident nuclear-capable submarine base on the Clyde. At about the same time the Scottish First Minister Alex Salmond was in Washington DC giving a speech in which he implied that an independent Scotland would be able to remain a member of NATO.

This claim has been challenged on two points: first, that the Scottish National Party is opposed to nuclear weapons and has said it would officially take this position if it gained independence; second, that NATO has indicated that an independent Scotland would have to re-apply for membership and be approved by all 28 NATO countries, among them Britain. Last year Mr Salmond made similar optimistic statements about Scottish membership of the European Union after independence but then had to acknowledge that no such assurance had been received from the EU itself.

Scottish voters will want to know precisely what effect independence would have on their current membership of NATO and EU and other international institutions and Mr Salmond's Panglossian outlook is unlikely to convince them that he really knows the answers. He needs to be more honest with his electorate.