KEY INDICATORS

GENERALLY, prime ministers prefer not to leave the date of an election until late in the five-year term of office allowed to the party in power. The risk is of being boxed in by negative developments in the last month or two which leave no time for recovery. For various reasons Gordon Brown has taken this risk and next week will face the announcement of four key economic indicators that could have a profound effect on the outcome of the election. These are: inflation rates (Tuesday), unemployment figures (Wednesday), high street spending figures (Thursday) and national growth figures for the first quarter of 2010 (Friday). Of these the last is by far the most important since it will show whether the first signs of Britain's recovery from recession shown in the figures for the previous quarter have been sustained.

In an election where so many economic claims are being made and refuted the electorate would probably welcome just a broad indication of whether things are improving, standing still or moving backwards. Next Friday's growth figures should come close to providing this guidance. The growth figure -- published by the independent Office of National Statistics -- will be provisional and revised later but it should nonetheless tell us whether those fragile green shoots of recovery sighted three months ago have grown or withered.