ARE BOTH WRONG?

by RAY FLEMING
WELL, they can't both be right. On Wednesday in this space I wrote about the Guardian/ICM poll which gave the Conservatives a 39-34 advantage “if there were an election tomorrow”. Yesterday the Daily Telegraph/YouGov poll said the result would be 44-26 in the Conservative's favour. That's a huge difference, even allowing for different polling methods and timing. ICM said that in the past month Labour had gained five points while the Conservatives had lost three; YouGov said Labour had lost three points while the Conservatives gained one. One factor that may have accounted for the difference was that YouGov's polling took place last Monday and Tuesday while Gordon Brown's problems with his backbenchers were at their height whereas ICM had polled over last weekend. The “don't know” response to YouGov was a relatively high 20 per cent -- a sign, probably, that there is a lot of volatility in the electorate's opinions. A 44-26 win for the Conservatives at the next election would give them an overall House of Commons majority of 154. Yet, curiously, the poll question “Is David Cameron proving a good leader?” showed a two point drop, from 44 to 42, in his approval factor. Another interesting poll result yesterday predicted that in the election for London Mayor Ken Kivingstone has a 41-38 advantage over Boris Johnson but would lose to him when second preference votes are taken into account.