Germans vote in Mallorca

According to the latest polls, Merz would become the next chancellor with 29.5 percent of the vote. However, he is expected to require the collaboration of at least one other party to achieve a majority.
The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) and Scholz’s Social Democratic Party (SPD) would obtain 21 per cent and 15 per cent, respectively.

Vice-Chancellor Robert Habeck’s Greens would be at 12.5 per cent and The Left (Die Linke) at 7.5 per cent. Merz has rejected the AfD, and his possibility of a coalition with the SPD or The Greens depends on two small parties exceeding the 5 per cent threshold to enter the Bundestag. Each voter is entitled to cast two votes, one for a party and one for a candidate in their constituency, under a complex electoral system. To gain representation in the Bundestag, parties must win at least 5 per cent of the vote in the second round or win at least three seats in the 299 constituencies.

The polling stations will remain open until 6 p.m. (the same time as in mainland Spain and the Balearics) and provisional results are expected to be published after the polls close, while the final results will probably be released in the early hours of the morning.

The elections are being held early after the fall of the Scholz government following the departure of the Liberal Party from the coalition. Germany was initially due to hold elections in September 2025. The country faces the elections with the difficult task of boosting economic growth after years of crisis.

The election campaign has been dominated by fierce exchanges over the perception that irregular immigration is out of control, fueled by a series of attacks in which the suspected perpetrators were of migrant origin. It has also been overshadowed by the unusually forceful show of solidarity by members of the Trump administration - including Vice President JD Vance and tech billionaire Elon Musk - for the anti-migrant AfD, and broadsides against European leaders. The 12-year-old AfD is on track to come in second place for the first time in a national election.

"I'm completely disappointed in politics, so maybe an alternative would be better," said retired Berlin bookkeeper Ludmila Ballhorn, 76, who plans to vote AfD, adding she was struggling to live on her pension of 800 euros. "Rents and all other costs have soared." The AfD, however, is unlikely to govern for now as all mainstream parties have ruled out working with it, though some analysts believe it could pave the way for an AfD win in 2029. Still, its strength, along with a small but significant vote share for the far-left and the decline of Germany's big-tent parties, is increasingly complicating the formation of coalitions and governance.